Alex Belth has been on a roll lately, with a massive selection of Yankee preview special posts. But over the weekend, he outdid himself with a four-part roundtable discussion featuring 14 star bloggers and sportswriters. Here's the first part. But do read every part of it.

My latest hiatus was, of course, the only reason Alex didn't ask me to participate. But I can provide my own answers to Alex's questions to you, my loyal readers. As a fellow Riverdalian, I'm sure Alex won't mind.

Alex's questions to his panel are in bold, and my answers/predictions are not.

Will Joe Torre be fired during the 2004 season? If so, when? If he is canned, who will replace him? Will Torre ever manage the Red Sox?

Torre won't be fired. It is difficult to imagine a scenario where the team would be eliminated from postseason consideration before the end of the season, and even if they're on the bubble as the season winds down, even George will be mindful of the risks in replacing Torre with a new manager while the team is fighting for a playoff spot. (If they don't make it, he will certainly not return next year.)

I don't see Torre managing the RedSox. I don't see him signing onto a system where the front office has such definite ideas about how to use the roster (not that Torre couldn't use the help sometimes, but never mind).

The arrival of Alex Rodriguez brings with it plenty of potential for controversy. The biggest issue of course is who should play shortstop? Though the Yankees don't have any intentions of moving Jeter right now, who do you think should play shortstop for the Yankees?

Across town, Mike Piazza has been the victim of a year-long roast by the NY media for showing insufficient enthusiasm for moving out from behind the plate, notwithstanding the fact that neither Pudge nor Posada were waiting in the Shea wings. Assuming Jeter is in fact so bitterly opposed to changing positions, why should he receive less criticism?

Nobody short of Suzyn Waldman denies the fact that A-Rod is the better shortstop. And this isn't first base; the difference between a good SS and a bad one is substantial. What kind of message is sent when one player's preference takes precedence over what's much, much better for the team?

Some baseball observers are more offended that A Rod--the better defensive player, and perhaps the best shortstop since Honus Wagner--will be asked to move positions than they are that he's joined the Yankees. Jeter is famous as a team-first player. Do you think he would ever consider moving positions, ala Chipper Jones, if it helps the team? If he doesn't, how could that change his image? In addition, what position do you think would best suit Jeter's talents?

I will assume that Jeter would move if asked, until proven otherwise. I still believe that Jeter will come up with a mysterious "injury" that has little impact on his offensive game but necessitates his move to 3B during the year. Torre & the gang are good with such face-saving injuries.

I see the argument that Jeter would not do well at 3B due to his slow reaction time. Nevertheless, I'd hide him there this year, because there's no OF spot for him now and a bad 3B will hurt the Yankees less than an bad SS. (This is especially true now that the Yankees have no lefthanded starter - especially a groundball one like Andy Pettite. And I'm on the record as suggesting the 3B move over a year ago.) After this year, I'd move him to CF, as suggested by several members of the Belth panel.

There has been a wide gap in the perception of Jeter's defense. Now that the Yankees have a superior defensive option on their roster, will the perception of Jeter's defensive reputation change?

I think the perception of Jeter's defense - always poor in the sabermetric community - had already begun to change in the larger community since the 2002 debacle against the Angels, when Jeter's glove clearly helped cost the Yankees the series. The fact that most journalists are admitting that A-Rod is better will only speed the change in perception. He can't stay at SS for long once the general perception of his defense catches up to the reality and there's a better option 50 feet away.

How much better is the Yankees bullpen this season than it was in 2003?

Better, but not by as much as people think. Assuming Gordon is healthy, Torre will not be afraid to use him. That will be the biggest change & benefit. However, Karsay is unlikely to do anything in the first half or so. I predict a massive return to earth for Felix Heredia, and Gabe White will probably have taterrific streaks which Torre may or may not allow him to work through. (Bet on "not.") More importantly, unless the Yankees get Jeter off SS and import a 2B who can catch the ball, I think Quantrill (one of the most extreme groundball pitchers in the majors) will be in the same boat as Chris Hammond was last year - pitching fairly decently but not living up to exaggerated expectations, and losing Torre's confidence as a result. And we all know what happens to relievers who lose Torre's confidence.

Will the Yankees sign Mariano to a contract extension before the end of the 2004 season? And should they?

Probably and probably - the latter because while he wouldn't be a good bet to maintain effectiveness to the end of his extension, the Yankees can afford virtually anything and his October magic is a marginal benefit that is worth the risk to this team. (I think the numbers on the extension will likely be around those proposed by Joe Sheehan, with the down market for players generally and closers particularly.)

Who will have the better season: Pettitte or Vasquez? Clemens or Brown?

Caterwauling by certain bloggers aside, Vasquez is almost certain (barring injury) to have a better season than Pettite. The Brown - Clemens question is wholly dependent on the pitchers' relative health. If equally healthy, Brown will be much better than Clemens. But my guess is that Brown will be hurt more than Clemens and contribute less as a result.

I like Steven Goldman's take on the question, though:

[D]ifferences of context – league and park and supporting personnel – make the answer dependent on more than the merits of each pitcher. What I think you’re really trying to ask is, “Did the Yankees make the right choices here?” Vazquez is already a better pitcher than Pettitte and should remain so, but that’s only germane if the choice was Vazquez or Pettitte, which it wasn’t. Whether letting Pettitte go will depend on whether the team’s estimate of his short-term injury future is accurate, and we won’t know that for awhile. Clemens or Brown wasn’t a choice either, and what he does vs. Brown is not at all relevant to the sitch in the Bronx.

Goldman is right: there's a good argument that the best combination the Yankees could have had of these three pitchers would've been Vasquez and Pettite. And if they could've done the Weaver-for-Brown swap in addition to those choices, then the Red Sox would have little chance. But it wasn't to be...

Will Mike Mussina win 20 games? If not, will he at least win 15 games again? How close is Mussina to being a Hall of Famer?

All caveats about the foolishness of the pitcher's "win" stat apply here. That said, given Mussina's health record and the likely strength of the Yankee offense, he is as reliable a bet to win 15 as there is in the game. You'd think he should win 20 one of these years, so why not now?

As for the Hall, I would absolutely vote for Mussina, and he'll have a good historical case if he has a few good years. However, the voting standards for starting pitchers seem to have toughened up noticeably in recent years (it seems to practically be a requirement to win 300 games), so I don't think he'll have much of a case unless both fo the following occur: (a) he uses the Yankees' bats to have a 24-4 season or the like, and (b) the Yankees win at least one Series with him pitching well. If either of those do not occur, I think he'll face an unjustified tough time from the BBWAA.

Do you see Jose Contreras as the x-factor in the Yankees starting rotation?

Brown is the much bigger X-factor, because of his exceptional quality and equally exceptional health issues (as Tom Verducci points out). I personally am not especially worried about Lieber; according to Will Carroll, he was ready to pitch last year and has had an extra winter to rest. I expect he'll hold up the back end of the rotation just fine. If Brown and Contreras can make 60 starts between them, the Yankees should win the division easily. I don't expect that they will.

How do you think Bernie Williams will adapt to being a designated hitter? Will Kenny Lofton's presence distract him or inspire him? How close is Williams to being a Hall of Famer? What does he need to do to qualify?

I think being a DH will be great for Williams, as it will take pressure off his knees and likely increase his hitting production. The biggest problem with him being a DH is the according necessity to have Jason Giambi in the field, with his own physical problems. Lofton's presence already seems to have inspired Williams; I doubt it will be a problem as the season goes on.

I think Williams is already a Hall of Famer, but he is unlikely to be elected by the BBWAA because of his diffuse skills and accomplishments. It is unlikely he will reach the fashionable counting milestones, but he's been better than many other players who did or will. If he has a hitting renaissance and the Yankees win another couple of championships, that might help his cause.

Theo Epstein and Billy Beane are the two most celebrated general managers in the game right now. Is there any doubt that Brian Cashman belongs in their company?

I think it's way too premature to rank Epstein in that category, though he's certainly moving up there. But whatever qualifications are due to Cashman's record due to the diffused responsibilities in the Yankee front office and their cash reserves are more than balanced out by the overall consistency and record of good moves. There's some doubt, but not much. (For what it's worth, I get the sense that the Baseball Prospectus guys talk to Cashman regularly and that he understands sabermetrics more than he lets on - meaning he's already savvier than Epstein, in that he knows enough not to let the media know what he knows.)

The Yankees have a gruff edge this season with the additions of Kevin Brown, Sheffield and Kenny Lofton. Some observers look at this team as a far cry from the Paul O'Neill Yankees. Will the new attitude help or hurt the team?

I won't bother discussing how (with the exception of the 1979 Pirates) the 1970s seemed to prove that "chemistry" was a handicap in trying to win a championship, or how Paul O'Neill was Kevin Brown with better PR. I'll instead refer to a not-quite-masterpiece of NY sports literature, The Worst Team Money Can Buy, an account of the ill-fated 1992 Mets. Aside from being an almost immediate anachronism (as the 1993 version of the team would surpass its predecessor in every category of ignominy, including losses, reporters squirted with bleach and firecrackers thrown at fans), the authors (Bob Klapisch and John Harper, then as now major NY sportswriters) made an argument that looks fairly foolosh now. I can't quote as my copy of the book is in storage, but the authors argue that a fair helping of nastiness, unpleasantness and "*^&$-you" attitude is essential to winning a World Series in NY, using the Bronx Zoo and brawling, boozing & (free-)basing 1986 Mets as proof. Maybe that particular foolish argument is due for a renaissance, replacing the equally foolish argument about how the Yankees' supposed recent harmony was the basis for their championships.

From a writer's viewpoint, is this the most interesting Yankee team since the Bronx Zoo days of the late seventies?

From a non-(professional) writer's standpoint, I think this team is far more interesting. Not just because I was a small child during the late 1970s. As previously discussed, this team is engaged in a fascinating economic experiment - attempting to use its monetary advantages and the inefficiencies of the current market to fight against the encroaching rot from within (the barren farm system & aging of core players). They're trying to fight Bill James' famous "treadmill." And if they fail, it is a bloodier repeat of 1964 or 1981. The dynasty - and a way of doing business - hangs in the balance. Personally, I find that more interesting than whether the players hate the manager. But what do I know? I'm not a sportswriter.

What are you looking forward to about the 2004 Yankees? And what are you dreading about them?

Looking forward...to Vasquez emerging as the star he already is, to (hopefully) Giambi and Williams arresting their declines, to A-Rod and Sheffield performing their magic in pinstripes, to every comeback win, every Boston game and every Mariano appearance...for starters.
Dreading...the possibility of Brown, Contreras, Giambi, Williams, Gordon and Mariano all being on the DL at the same time, and the realization that due to their barren farm system, the Yankees can do nothing to fill those holes.

Do you think the Yankees will get into a bench-clearing brawl during the regular season?

If Brown and Pedro match up, the over/under should be the 3rd inning.

****

And here are a couple of questions I though of, so I'll ask myself:

Who will be playing second base for the Yankees by midseason?

Whichever of Edgardo Alfonzo or Ray Durham the Giants are more willing to dump. I am personally hoping for Alfonzo. Yes, he's probably "29" in El Duque years and has no power left, but he still has a good OBP and is an excellent defensive 2B, and that's all they need. Plus, the ex-Met factor is too tempting for the deal not to happen; every hour of caterwauling on the "Mike & the Mad Dog" show is worth another few thousand tickets. Which leads into...

Who will be the starting pitcher acquired by the Yankees in midseason?

Al Leiter, assuming he doesn't suddenly collapse. He's a lefty and still throws reasonably hard with good breaking pitches, which will be an asset against David Ortiz and Trot Nixon (the only real problem with the Yankees not having a lefty starter). As an old pitcher on a bad contract (and a no-trade, I believe), he can probably be had cheaply (and he will almost certainly waive his no-trade for a chance at the World Series without leaving home). And Jim Duquette has (properly) not been afraid to trade with the Yankees. And this trade will drive the Mad Dog through the roof - it'll be great listening. I know Met fans would prefer to send Glavine (who has "the advantage of sucking," as well-put by a Met fan correspondent) to the Yankees, but no such luck.