Check out the text of this lecture from Michael Crichton. It's more substantive than any of his novels:
Let's think back to people in 1900 in, say, New York. If they worried about people in 2000, what would they worry about? Probably: Where would people get enough horses? And what would they do about all the horseshit? Horse pollution was bad in 1900, think how much worse it would be a century later, with so many more people riding horses?
But of course, within a few years, nobody rode horses except for sport. And in 2000, France was getting 80% its power from an energy source that was unknown in 1900. Germany, Switzerland, Belgium and Japan were getting more than 30% from this source, unknown in 1900. Remember, people in 1900 didn't know what an atom was. They didn't know its structure. They also didn't know what a radio was, or an airport, or a movie, or a television, or a computer, or a cell phone, or a jet, an antibiotic, a rocket, a satellite, an MRI, ICU, IUD, IBM, IRA, ERA, EEG, EPA, IRS, DOD, PCP, HTML, internet. interferon, instant replay, remote sensing, remote control, speed dialing, gene therapy, gene splicing, genes, spot welding, heat-seeking, bipolar, prozac, leotards, lap dancing, email, tape recorder, CDs, airbags, plastic explosive, plastic, robots, cars, liposuction, transduction, superconduction, dish antennas, step aerobics, smoothies, twelve-step, ultrasound, nylon, rayon, teflon, fiber optics, carpal tunnel, laser surgery, laparoscopy, corneal transplant, kidney transplant, AIDS… None of this would have meant anything to a person in the year 1900. They wouldn't know what you are talking about.
Now. You tell me you can predict the world of 2100. Tell me it's even worth thinking about. Our models just carry the present into the future. They're bound to be wrong. Everybody who gives a moment's thought knows it.
I remind you that in the lifetime of most scientists now living, we have already had an example of dire predictions set aside by new technology. I refer to the green revolution. In 1960, Paul Ehrlich said, "The battle to feed humanity is over. In the 1970s the world will undergoe famines-hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death." Ten years later, he predicted four billion people would die during the 1980s, including 65 million Americans. The mass starvation that was predicted never occurred, and it now seems it isn't ever going to happen. Nor is the population explosion going to reach the numbers predicted even ten years ago. In 1990, climate modelers anticipated a world population of 11 billion by 2100. Today, some people think the correct number will be 7 billion and falling. But nobody knows for sure.
Read the whole thing. (Link via Tim Blair.)
Comments
Actually, Ehrlich's prediction amounts to a claim that a minority of human deaths each year would be by starvation and it wouldn't be enough to stop population growth. IOW, it was a moderately plausible claim designed to sound horrifyingly like a prediction of a population crash. It didn't come true but it might have done so if there had been another Great Leap Forward in China and another in India.
It was a prediction by a propagandist, not a crackpot.
Posted by: Joseph Hertzlinger | December 21, 2003 2:10 AM
Oops! I only noticed the first Ehrlich prediction mentioned. Apparently, he started believing his own propaganda.
Posted by: Joseph Hertzlinger | December 21, 2003 2:16 PM
I disagree with Dr. Mike that these things were generally unheard of. Certainly prozac wasn't known, but Absinthe was. Leotards - had 'em, computers - oh? movies? Well... Atoms? really?
While I get the idea, I think he's discounting the incredible amount of work people did even before 1900 that resulted in these things.
Posted by: Dave_Violence | December 22, 2003 12:50 PM
iIs micheal Crinchton writing a 4th Jurassic Park book?
Posted by: Cory | February 24, 2004 9:54 AM
What's Micheal Crinchton's e-mail adress, I need to know more about Jurassic park (his novels)?
Posted by: Cory Wheeler | February 24, 2004 9:57 AM
I have an idea for a book i was told that i need your permission to sell it it is based on the game Jarassic Park: Operation Genesis please contact me at RileyP2004@yahoo.com if you want more info please consider it i have some good ideas
p.s. My brother LOVES your show ER
Riley J Poulsen
Posted by: Riley Poulsen | April 22, 2004 6:34 PM
Im Michael Crichton's cousin and I was looking for his email address because I've never met him and I want to. Also I want to have him come to our school.
Posted by: Kory Crichton | April 28, 2004 10:11 AM