« Previous Entry | Back to Blissful Knowledge | Next Entry »


July 17, 2003
MISCELLANEOUS WMD POINTS

In no particular order:
1) Kevin Drum is right about many things, but most notably about this one:

[E]ven if the specific evidence in the State of the Union speech was dubious, what was the general prewar assessment of Saddam's nuclear bomb program? Should George Bush have been talking about it at all?
So I pulled my copy of The Threatening Storm off the shelf and reread the section on nuclear weapons (pp. 173-175). It's unequivocal: writing in late 2002, Kenneth Pollack says there is a "consensus" that Iraq has an active nuclear program; it employs as many as 14,000 workers; experts "unanimously" agree that Iraq is working to enrich uranium; and Iraq might be able to build a bomb as early as 2004.
But unlike chemical and biological weapons, which might yet be found, a nuclear program is too big to hide. If we haven't found it by now, it just doesn't exist, and that means that something that was "unanimously" agreed upon in late 2002 has turned out to be flatly wrong.
By the end of January, with UN inspectors roaming freely around Iraq, the evidence for a nuclear program was dwindling fast. For some reason, though, Bush's advisors felt that chemical and biological weapons weren't enough for his State of the Union speech, so they seized on what little was left in order to keep the threat of nuclear bombs alive. That's bad enough, but even worse is how the collective intelligence agencies of the world misjudged what was happening in Iraq so badly. This isn't a small point of interpretation, it's a case of absolute certainty about a massive technical and industrial program that turned out to be complete fiction.
How did that happen?

(Emphasis added.)

Leaving out the obvious caveats about how it is still far too early to say that Iraq's nuclear program is a "complete fiction" and "if we haven't found it by now, it doesn't exist" (after all, the first round of inspectors didn't find Iraq's nuclear program until directed to it by defector Hussein Kamel, four years after inspections began), Kevin is absolutely right that the Niger "gotcha" game is a stand-in for the real issue of whether the world's intelligence services completely misread the situation. And if so, that scandal far outstrips any question of whether a particular claim should or should not have been in the State of the Union address. (For one, it clearly pre-dates the Bush administration, so the question of whether they improperly bullied the CIA is irrelevant.) And on the tactical level, this conflation - clearly being encouraged by some administration critics - will likely backfire, as the storm over the second question will likely dissipate once the US finds some store of chemical weapons - which (I think) is still likely - and also defusing the "Bush lied" storyline.
2) I still think that administration critics like Josh Marshall are semi-willfully blinding themselves to the main message of the Administration's arguments for the war. And because of that, I think they are overstating the importance of the Niger/uranium claim.
3) The "Bush lied" string is clearly based, in large part, on resentment over the way Republicans treated President Clinton and the 2000 election, and the according desire for revenge. Don't believe me? Ask Michael Tomasky, showing signs of Kool-Aid overdose. I found this piece strangely gripping:

Here, distilled into four paragraphs, is the liberal interpretation of the last 10 years.
After a long and in some ways well-earned stroll in the wilderness, Democrats finally elect one of their own to the presidency. He is a prodigiously talented man. He has flaws, to be sure, and some of them are important. But far more important is the way the rules of the game change upon his ascension. On election night, the nation's leading Republican goes on television and snorts that the victory is illegitimate; from that point on, a campaign is waged to destroy -- not tarnish or discredit or soften up, but destroy -- the new president and his wife. This campaign has no precedent in American political history. (Please spare us the Alexander-Hamilton-and-his-mistress parallel; the 1790s are not parallel to today's world, and Hamilton was attacked by one yellow journalist, not a network of operatives with tens of millions of dollars to spend.) Finally, he is caught in flagrante. Even then, the public asserts directly and repeatedly that it does not consider the offense a high crime or misdemeanor.
But no matter. Against the clear will of the people, impeachment proceeds. It fails, but the hounding, again mostly over pseudo-scandals (like a West Wing ransacking) that never happened but are endlessly hyped by a frivolous media, continues. And in its way, this technique succeeds: What was objectively a bountiful and comparatively humane period in American history -- prosperity, peace, low crime, reduced poverty, international goodwill; an era that should have demonstrated that Democrats knew how to run the country and left the GOP badly marginalized -- is successfully tarnished.
So the vice president seeks the presidency. He runs a soggy campaign, true. But again, it's beyond dispute that the majority of Americans who go to the polls intend for him to be the president. Yet he loses -- according to the rules, at least. But somehow the experience of the previous eight years has left us with the distinct feeling that, had the situation been reversed, other rules would have been found to ensure the same result. We are admonished to "get over it" by people we know would not have gotten over it if things had gone the other way.
The Republican takes over. For eight months, he convinces precious few who didn't vote for him that he's the man for the job. But then unprecedented tragedy occurs. Americans, the vast majority of liberals included, rally around their country; by and large we support War No. 1. We have serious reservations about War No. 2. But by now something more disturbing than a mere policy dispute has occurred. By now, simply asking questions, or refusing to accept the government's assertions at face value, is denounced as something tantamount to treason. We find this, um, troubling: Open debate and vigorous dissent, we were raised to believe, were once considered the quintessential American values. Now, they are taken as prima facie evidence of anti-Americanism. (We note also how ardently the other side seemed to believe in vigorous dissent when its members were the dissenters.) In Georgia, a man (and sitting senator) who sacrificed his body for his country is labeled unpatriotic. The president has it well within his power, by simply uttering a few morally forceful sentences, to put an end to this madness. But the demonization of the other side is what keeps him afloat politically, and he refuses to do so -- and, in the Georgia instance, goes so far as to implicitly play along.

Even if that description is 100% accurate (and I'm resisting the temptation to unload on the accusation of "asking questions=treason"), this is the best illustration of David Brooks' diagnosis of self-defeating rage. Ask the mischievous Mark Steyn:

They’ve let post-impeachment, post-chad-dangling bitterness unhinge them to the point where, given a choice between investigating the intelligence lapses that led to 9/11 and the intelligence lapses that led to a victorious war in Iraq, they stampede for the latter. Iraq was a brilliant campaign fought with minimal casualties, 11 September was a humiliating failure by government to fulfill its primary role of national defence. But Democrats who complained that Bush was too slow to act on doubtful intelligence re 9/11 now profess to be horrified that he was too quick to act on doubtful intelligence re Iraq. This is not a serious party.

Or ask the judicious John Judis, whose belief in an emerging Democratic majority does not blind him to the fact that Howard Dean's rage-based campaign is likely to end disastrously for the Democrats (ad viewing required):

Even if the United States remains bogged down in Iraq, and even if popular doubts about the invasion and occupation grow, Americans are still likely to credit Bush with trying to wage a vigorous war against terror. And they will consider voting for a Democratic candidate only if they believe he can do likewise. The Republicans will argue that an antiwar candidate like Dean who has no foreign policy experience is ill-equipped to protect the country from attack. And a lot of people will believe those charges. At the least, a candidate like Dean will have to spend a vital part of his campaign defending his credentials on homeland security and the war against terror rather than attacking Bush's economic program. Think of Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis (who, unlike Dean, served in the armed forces) unsuccessfully defending his foreign policy credentials against Bush's father in 1988.
...To put it in regional terms: Dean, a culturally libertarian New Englander who opposed the war, could virtually forget about winning any Southern or border states. Southerners are willing to support a Southern Democrat like Clinton with whom they can identify, but they will not vote for a Dukakis or Dean. Dean would not simply get trounced in the South: His candidacy would allow Bush to take the entire South for granted and move all his resources into states like Michigan and Pennsylvania that the Democrats have to win. In the end, Dean would be lucky to hold on to Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, D.C., Maryland, Illinois, Minnesota, California, Oregon, and Washington.

A final reason for why the "Bush lied" theme is mostly based on resentment and desire for revenge. Ronald Reagan made all sorts of weird economic claims (held in at least as much contempt by the professional economic set as Bush's claims) and other, shall we say, reality-challeneged statements. (I like the guy, but it's true.) While Democrats savaged him on all sorts of grounds, I don't recall them calling him a "liar" 250,000 times a day. That doesn't make it right to misuse/mangle/ignore facts, but you do get tired of seeing it called "unprecedented" on the NYT op-ed page twice a week when it's simply untrue. (A lie?)
After all, to quote Steyn again:

In 1998, when Bill Clinton launched mid-Monica cruise-missile attacks on Afghanistan and the Sudan, he hit a Khartoum aspirin factory and missed Osama bin Laden. The claims that the aspirin factory was producing nerve gas and was an al-Qa’eda front proved to be untrue. Does that mean Clinton lied to us?

4) Finally, the notorious site run by Al Gore's old roomate, the Daily Howler, has twice defended Bush against the charges of Niger-based lies (here and here; with links from Instapundit.).
After those posts, I will take their criticisms of George Bush and the media much more seriously.

Posted by Dr. Manhattan at 7:06 PM |




Blog Archives
March 2008
December 2005
August 2005
June 2005
May 2005
April 2005
March 2005
November 2004
September 2004
August 2004
April 2004
March 2004
February 2004
January 2004
December 2003
November 2003
October 2003
September 2003
August 2003
July 2003
June 2003
May 2003
February 2003
January 2003
December 2002
November 2002
October 2002
September 2002
August 2002
July 2002
June 2002
May 2002
April 2002
March 2002
February 2002
Click for archives by week


Blog Categories
Autism
Baseball
From Blogger
Jewish/Israel
Markets
News
Other
Personal
Politics & Policy
War
Website related


Bloggers & Columnists
&c.
A Small Victory
A Taxing Blog
About Last Night
Agitator
Agonist
Aidel Maidel
Alas, a Blog
Allah
Altercation
Amish Tech Support
Amitai Etzioni
Amygdala
An Unsealed Room
Andrew Ferguson
Andrew Olmstead
Andrew Sullivan
Apt. 11D
Apikorsus Online
Armed Liberal
Arnold Kling
Asymmetrical Information
Atlantic Blog
Back Row of the 'Beis
Balkinization
Balloon Juice
Baraita
Baynonim
Beauty of Gray
Belgravia Dispatch
Ben Chorin
Best of the Web
Bloghead
Bloviator
Brad DeLong
Bring Back Sincerity
Brink Lindsey
Brothers Judd
Buck Stops Here
Buzz Machine
California Insider
CalPundit/Political Animal
CantWatch
Capital Games
Chakira
Charles Krauthammer
Charles Murtaugh
Chayyei Sarah
ChicagoBoyz
Chris Mooney
Clayton Cramer
Colby Cosh
Cold Fury
Common Sense and Wonder
Confessions of an Orthodox Jewish Straight Theatre Queen
Conspiracy to Keep You Poor and Stupid
Command Post
Cooped Up
The Corner
Cornfield Commentary
Corp Law Blog
CounterRevolutionary
Counterspin Central
Crescat Sententia
Critical Mass
Crooked Timber
Croooow Blog
Cut on the Bias
Daily Howler
DailyKOS
Daily Pundit
Daimnation!
Daniel W. Drezner
Daniel Pipes
Dave Barry
David Frum
DefenseTech
Deionychus antirrhopus
Discriminations
Disgusted Liberal
Dr. Weevil
D-Squared Digest
Easterblogg
Economic Principals
EconoPundit
Edge of England's Sword
Eject! Eject! Eject!
Electric Venom
Elizabeth Spiers
Eschaton
Eve Tushnet
Expat Egghead
Frum Dad
Frum Talk
Gawker
GedankenPundit
Gene Expression
George F. Will
Giants and Dwarfs
Gideon's Blog
GirlHock
God of the Machine
Goldberg File
Haggai's Place
Hasidic Rebel
Head Heeb
Hirhurim
Hit and Run
House of Hock
How Appealing
Howard Kurtz
HoyStory
Iberian Notes
Idealogian
Imshin
In the Pipeline
IndePundit
InstaLawyer
InstaPundit
Intel Dump
Invisible Adjunct
Israeli Guy
IsraPundit
IvyJews
Jacob T. Levy
James Lileks
Jason Rylander
Jewish Musings
Joanne Jacobs
John Ellis
John Leo
Jonathan Rauch
Juan Cole
Juan Gato
Junius
Just One Minute
Kausfiles
Ken Layne
Kesher Talk
KickAAS
Kicker
Kieran Healy
The Knowledge Problem
The Kolkata Libertarian
L.A. Examiner
Letter from Gotham
Little Green Footballs
Man Without Qualities
Mark Kleiman
Mark Steyn
Martin Kramer
Marvin Schick
Matt Welch
Matthew Miller
Matthew Yglesias
Max Power
MaxSpeak
MedPundit
MedRants
Meryl Yourish
Michael Barone
Michael Kelly
Michael Lewis
Michael J. Totten
Michelle Malkin
Midwest Conservative Journal
MOChassid
Mullings
Muslim Pundit
Norah Vincent
Norwegian Blogger
The Note
N.Z. Bear
Oliver Willis
One Hand Clapping
Outside the Beltway
Overlawyered
OxBlog
Patio Pundit
Patrick Ruffini
Paul Krugman (unofficial)
Pejman Pundit
PLA
Political Aims
The Poor Man
Porphyrogenitus
Power Line
Priorities and Frivolities
Professor Bainbridge
Protein Wisdom
Protocols
Protocols of the Yuppies of Zion
PunditWatch
QuasiPundit
Rachel Lucas
Rand Simberg
Rantburg
Real Clear Politics
Regions of Mind
Respectful of Otters
Ribbity Frog
Right Wing News
Rob Lyman
Robert Kagan
Roger L. Simon
Safety Valve
Samizdata
Sand in the Gears
Sgt. Stryker
Scrappleface
Sebastian Holsclaw
Seraphic Secret
Shadow of the Hegemon
Shaigetz
Shark Blog
Shiloh Bucher
Silent Running
Sine qua Non Pundit
Somewhere on A1A
Sneaking Suspicions
SoxBlog
SpinSanity
Spinsters
The Spoons Experience
Steve Chapman (Tribune)
Steven Chapman (blog)
Strategy Page
Styx
Tacitus
Tal G. in Jerusalem
Talk Left
Talking Dog
Talking Points Memo
TAPPED
Ted Barlow
This Normal Life
This Woman's Work
Tightly Wound
Tim Blair
Treppenwitz
Town Crier
2Blowhards
Unqualified Offerings
U.S.S. Clueless
Victor Davis Hanson
View from Here
Virginia Postrel
VodkaPundit
The Volokh Conspiracy
Wampum
War Liberal
Where is Raed
William Burton
William Saletan
Winds of Change
Wonkette
Yale Pundits
YUtopia
Zogby Blog


Jewish & Israel
Azure
Bar-Ilan University
Chief Rabbi (UK)
Edah
eParsha
Ha-aretz
Hebrew University
OU Institute for Public Affairs
Israeli Defense Forces
Jerusalem Post
Jerusalem Report
JewishLaw
Jewish Theological Seminary
Jewish Week
Jewish World Review
Jewsweek
Kashrut.com
Meimad
Middle East Media Research Institute
Orthodox Union
Shalem Institute
Kosher Restaurant Database
Soloveitchik Institute
Tanach Study Center
Virtual Beit Midrash
Yeshiva University
Yeshivat Chovevei Torah
YIVO Institute for Jewish Research


Baseball & Other Sports
Aaron's Baseball Blog
Against the Grain
All-Baseball.com
Allen Barra
Always Amazin'
Armchair GM
Astros Daily
Bambino's Curse
Baseball Crank
Baseball Immortals
Baseball Musings
Baseball Prospectus
Baseball Primer
Baseball Outsider
Baseball Reference
Baseball Savant
Baseball Truth
Baseball Widow
Baysball
Bench Coach
Big Bad Baseball
Bill Simmons
Birds in the Belfry
Boy of Summer
Braves Journal
Bronx Banter
Clifford's Big Red Blog
Cub Reporter
Dan Lewis
Dodger Thoughts
Dominican Players
Doug Pappas' Business of Baseball
Dugout Dollars
East Coast Agony
Eddie Kranepool Society
Elephants in Oakland
Football Outsiders
Fun with Win Shares
Futility Infielder
Hardball Times
Honest Wagner
Idiots Write About Sports
Joel Sherman
MLB.com
Mariner Musings
Mike's Baseball Rants
Mudville Magazine
Off-Wing Opinion
Only Baseball Matters
Peter Gammons
Pinstriped Bible
Pinstripe News
Raindrops
Redbird Nation
Replacement Level Yankees Weblog
Retrosheet
Rookie's Life
Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT
Rob Neyer
SaberMets
Talking Baseball
Thomas Boswell
Thoughts from Diamond Mind Tom Verducci
Transaction Guy
Transition Game
U.S.S. Mariner
Universal Baseball Blog, Inc.
View from the 700 Level
Wait Til Next Year
Weblog that Derek Built
West 116th Street
WhatifSports.com
Will Carroll
Win Shares (in-season)
Yankees, Mets and the Rest


Publications & Policy
American Enterprise Institute
The American Prospect
Arts & Letters Daily
Atlantic Monthly
Brookings Institute
Cato Institute
City Journal
Commentary
Economist
Financial Times
Foreign Affairs
Heritage Foundation
Manhattan Institute
National Review Online
The New Republic
The New Yorker
New York Sun
New York Times
Progressive Policy Institute
RAND
Reason
Resources for the Future
Roll Call
Salon
Slate
Tech Central Station
Wall Street Journal
Washington Monthly
Washington Post
Weekly Standard
Wilson Quarterly


Miscellaneous Links
Bangitout.com
Dilbert Zone
The Great Movies
Neil Gaiman
The Onion
Snopes


Search the Site

Try advanced site search

Site Credits

last 50 hits in



Listed on BlogShares





E-mail Me