« Previous Entry | Back to Blissful Knowledge | Next Entry »


July 17, 2003
THIS MAY BE THE LAST MONEYBALL POST...BUT DON'T COUNT ON IT

Thomas Boswell "gets" Moneyball more than most of his sportswriter comrades. But even he, along with many observers, misses the point to a degree.
In his generally solid review of the book and its ramifications, Boswell reduced the "Billy Beane method" to a list of a few factors. And his summary is technically accurate. But it misses the point, which Lewis and Beane take care to stress: that open-mindedness and the ability to search for and accept new evidence are more important than any given maxim.
And that is the best answer to questions like the one contained in an e-mail I received today from a friend:
"How many teams need to operate by those rules before the "overvaluing" stops? Once the A's, Red Sox, and Blue Jays are operating this way, can they all contend every year?"
As Rob Neyer says:

[T]he real key to Billy Beane's success, and also to his continued success (assuming that he continues to succeed): Billy's ahead of the curve. Let's assume, for a moment, that the A's draft philosophy works, and further that it's copied by a number of other teams. That's going to create a problem for those teams, because they'll all be competing for the same players, right?
And how do you solve that problem? By coming up with a new philosophy. And which organization is best-equipped to come up with a new philosophy?
I don't know. Maybe it's the A's, but the Red Sox are well-equipped, and so are the Blue Jays, and maybe the Indians and a few other teams. My point is that if the A's fall back to the pack, it won't be due to other baseball executives reading Moneyball, and it won't be due to other teams copying the A's philosophies. If the A's fall back to the pack, it will be due to a deficiency in management.

There is always more to learn. And the true lesson of Billy Beane's success, and of Moneyball, is that a willingness to learn and adapt will eventually trump a static list of rules.
Here are a couple of examples. The book describes how the A's used a system inspired by Wall Street's valuation of derivatives to calculate the defensive value of Johnny Damon as compared to Terence Long, and how while the difference was extreme by defensive standards, it was a) not as great as the difference in offensive value between extreme players and b) more efficient to make up the difference by adding more offense.
While a) is generally true, b) was a fact-specific conclusion. Another organization might take the moral of the story to be "always value offense over defense." In that case, they would likely overlook the occasional easy availability of an outstanding defensive center fielder who can't hit much. Someone like Chris Singleton, who now patrols center field for Billy Beane's Oakland A's. In that case, his defensive abilities were undervalued, and the A's took advantage of the inefficiency.
Here's another thought. As I've noted before, the biggest flaw in the book is the omission what the A's are doing with their pitcher development. Supposedly they haven't had a major surgery in their organization in years (though I haven't checked that assertion) - by contrast, the Yankees should've gotten a group discount on "Tommy John" surgeries over the last couple of years. Their program is based on a combination of avoiding high school pitchers, constant work with mechanics based on an institute run by Dr. James Andrews (the surgeon who does most major pitcher surgeries), pitch counts, and other things. It's still unclear if they've discovered the secret to pitcher development, but it's looking good.
What if they really have learned the secrets to avoiding pitcher injuries? Maybe in a few years the A's will decide they should shift to preferring high school pitchers - that way, you keep them in-house for longer and avoid the risk that college coaches will shred their arms. That will shock all those who have read Moneyball and taken from it the message "high school pitchers=bad." But the A's may be ahead of the curve again.


Posted by Dr. Manhattan at 1:42 PM |




Blog Archives
March 2008
December 2005
August 2005
June 2005
May 2005
April 2005
March 2005
November 2004
September 2004
August 2004
April 2004
March 2004
February 2004
January 2004
December 2003
November 2003
October 2003
September 2003
August 2003
July 2003
June 2003
May 2003
February 2003
January 2003
December 2002
November 2002
October 2002
September 2002
August 2002
July 2002
June 2002
May 2002
April 2002
March 2002
February 2002
Click for archives by week


Blog Categories
Autism
Baseball
From Blogger
Jewish/Israel
Markets
News
Other
Personal
Politics & Policy
War
Website related


Bloggers & Columnists
&c.
A Small Victory
A Taxing Blog
About Last Night
Agitator
Agonist
Aidel Maidel
Alas, a Blog
Allah
Altercation
Amish Tech Support
Amitai Etzioni
Amygdala
An Unsealed Room
Andrew Ferguson
Andrew Olmstead
Andrew Sullivan
Apt. 11D
Apikorsus Online
Armed Liberal
Arnold Kling
Asymmetrical Information
Atlantic Blog
Back Row of the 'Beis
Balkinization
Balloon Juice
Baraita
Baynonim
Beauty of Gray
Belgravia Dispatch
Ben Chorin
Best of the Web
Bloghead
Bloviator
Brad DeLong
Bring Back Sincerity
Brink Lindsey
Brothers Judd
Buck Stops Here
Buzz Machine
California Insider
CalPundit/Political Animal
CantWatch
Capital Games
Chakira
Charles Krauthammer
Charles Murtaugh
Chayyei Sarah
ChicagoBoyz
Chris Mooney
Clayton Cramer
Colby Cosh
Cold Fury
Common Sense and Wonder
Confessions of an Orthodox Jewish Straight Theatre Queen
Conspiracy to Keep You Poor and Stupid
Command Post
Cooped Up
The Corner
Cornfield Commentary
Corp Law Blog
CounterRevolutionary
Counterspin Central
Crescat Sententia
Critical Mass
Crooked Timber
Croooow Blog
Cut on the Bias
Daily Howler
DailyKOS
Daily Pundit
Daimnation!
Daniel W. Drezner
Daniel Pipes
Dave Barry
David Frum
DefenseTech
Deionychus antirrhopus
Discriminations
Disgusted Liberal
Dr. Weevil
D-Squared Digest
Easterblogg
Economic Principals
EconoPundit
Edge of England's Sword
Eject! Eject! Eject!
Electric Venom
Elizabeth Spiers
Eschaton
Eve Tushnet
Expat Egghead
Frum Dad
Frum Talk
Gawker
GedankenPundit
Gene Expression
George F. Will
Giants and Dwarfs
Gideon's Blog
GirlHock
God of the Machine
Goldberg File
Haggai's Place
Hasidic Rebel
Head Heeb
Hirhurim
Hit and Run
House of Hock
How Appealing
Howard Kurtz
HoyStory
Iberian Notes
Idealogian
Imshin
In the Pipeline
IndePundit
InstaLawyer
InstaPundit
Intel Dump
Invisible Adjunct
Israeli Guy
IsraPundit
IvyJews
Jacob T. Levy
James Lileks
Jason Rylander
Jewish Musings
Joanne Jacobs
John Ellis
John Leo
Jonathan Rauch
Juan Cole
Juan Gato
Junius
Just One Minute
Kausfiles
Ken Layne
Kesher Talk
KickAAS
Kicker
Kieran Healy
The Knowledge Problem
The Kolkata Libertarian
L.A. Examiner
Letter from Gotham
Little Green Footballs
Man Without Qualities
Mark Kleiman
Mark Steyn
Martin Kramer
Marvin Schick
Matt Welch
Matthew Miller
Matthew Yglesias
Max Power
MaxSpeak
MedPundit
MedRants
Meryl Yourish
Michael Barone
Michael Kelly
Michael Lewis
Michael J. Totten
Michelle Malkin
Midwest Conservative Journal
MOChassid
Mullings
Muslim Pundit
Norah Vincent
Norwegian Blogger
The Note
N.Z. Bear
Oliver Willis
One Hand Clapping
Outside the Beltway
Overlawyered
OxBlog
Patio Pundit
Patrick Ruffini
Paul Krugman (unofficial)
Pejman Pundit
PLA
Political Aims
The Poor Man
Porphyrogenitus
Power Line
Priorities and Frivolities
Professor Bainbridge
Protein Wisdom
Protocols
Protocols of the Yuppies of Zion
PunditWatch
QuasiPundit
Rachel Lucas
Rand Simberg
Rantburg
Real Clear Politics
Regions of Mind
Respectful of Otters
Ribbity Frog
Right Wing News
Rob Lyman
Robert Kagan
Roger L. Simon
Safety Valve
Samizdata
Sand in the Gears
Sgt. Stryker
Scrappleface
Sebastian Holsclaw
Seraphic Secret
Shadow of the Hegemon
Shaigetz
Shark Blog
Shiloh Bucher
Silent Running
Sine qua Non Pundit
Somewhere on A1A
Sneaking Suspicions
SoxBlog
SpinSanity
Spinsters
The Spoons Experience
Steve Chapman (Tribune)
Steven Chapman (blog)
Strategy Page
Styx
Tacitus
Tal G. in Jerusalem
Talk Left
Talking Dog
Talking Points Memo
TAPPED
Ted Barlow
This Normal Life
This Woman's Work
Tightly Wound
Tim Blair
Treppenwitz
Town Crier
2Blowhards
Unqualified Offerings
U.S.S. Clueless
Victor Davis Hanson
View from Here
Virginia Postrel
VodkaPundit
The Volokh Conspiracy
Wampum
War Liberal
Where is Raed
William Burton
William Saletan
Winds of Change
Wonkette
Yale Pundits
YUtopia
Zogby Blog


Jewish & Israel
Azure
Bar-Ilan University
Chief Rabbi (UK)
Edah
eParsha
Ha-aretz
Hebrew University
OU Institute for Public Affairs
Israeli Defense Forces
Jerusalem Post
Jerusalem Report
JewishLaw
Jewish Theological Seminary
Jewish Week
Jewish World Review
Jewsweek
Kashrut.com
Meimad
Middle East Media Research Institute
Orthodox Union
Shalem Institute
Kosher Restaurant Database
Soloveitchik Institute
Tanach Study Center
Virtual Beit Midrash
Yeshiva University
Yeshivat Chovevei Torah
YIVO Institute for Jewish Research


Baseball & Other Sports
Aaron's Baseball Blog
Against the Grain
All-Baseball.com
Allen Barra
Always Amazin'
Armchair GM
Astros Daily
Bambino's Curse
Baseball Crank
Baseball Immortals
Baseball Musings
Baseball Prospectus
Baseball Primer
Baseball Outsider
Baseball Reference
Baseball Savant
Baseball Truth
Baseball Widow
Baysball
Bench Coach
Big Bad Baseball
Bill Simmons
Birds in the Belfry
Boy of Summer
Braves Journal
Bronx Banter
Clifford's Big Red Blog
Cub Reporter
Dan Lewis
Dodger Thoughts
Dominican Players
Doug Pappas' Business of Baseball
Dugout Dollars
East Coast Agony
Eddie Kranepool Society
Elephants in Oakland
Football Outsiders
Fun with Win Shares
Futility Infielder
Hardball Times
Honest Wagner
Idiots Write About Sports
Joel Sherman
MLB.com
Mariner Musings
Mike's Baseball Rants
Mudville Magazine
Off-Wing Opinion
Only Baseball Matters
Peter Gammons
Pinstriped Bible
Pinstripe News
Raindrops
Redbird Nation
Replacement Level Yankees Weblog
Retrosheet
Rookie's Life
Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT
Rob Neyer
SaberMets
Talking Baseball
Thomas Boswell
Thoughts from Diamond Mind Tom Verducci
Transaction Guy
Transition Game
U.S.S. Mariner
Universal Baseball Blog, Inc.
View from the 700 Level
Wait Til Next Year
Weblog that Derek Built
West 116th Street
WhatifSports.com
Will Carroll
Win Shares (in-season)
Yankees, Mets and the Rest


Publications & Policy
American Enterprise Institute
The American Prospect
Arts & Letters Daily
Atlantic Monthly
Brookings Institute
Cato Institute
City Journal
Commentary
Economist
Financial Times
Foreign Affairs
Heritage Foundation
Manhattan Institute
National Review Online
The New Republic
The New Yorker
New York Sun
New York Times
Progressive Policy Institute
RAND
Reason
Resources for the Future
Roll Call
Salon
Slate
Tech Central Station
Wall Street Journal
Washington Monthly
Washington Post
Weekly Standard
Wilson Quarterly


Miscellaneous Links
Bangitout.com
Dilbert Zone
The Great Movies
Neil Gaiman
The Onion
Snopes


Search the Site

Try advanced site search

Site Credits

last 50 hits in



Listed on BlogShares





E-mail Me