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February 12, 2003
THE PASSOVER PLOT?
Lots of people have noticed this Newsweek piece about the country's terror threat level has been raised to "orange" based on reports that al-Qaeda is mobilizing to attack Jews:
The FBI did appear to focus on one area: to identify hotels that are owned by Jews. The issue of possible attacks on Jewish-owned hotels was specifically raised by senior FBI officials with field-office chiefs during a 90-minute conference call on Friday, officials said. During the conference call, a senior official cited the recent Al Qaeda attack on a Bali nightclub that killed nearly 200 people last October, saying that the bureau now believes the facility was targeted because the owner was Jewish. NEWSWEEK could not independently confirm that assertion. Another recent Al Qaeda attack in Mombasa, Kenya, was aimed at a hotel that was frequented by Israelis.
Most Newsweek readers, and probably the FBI as well probably had the following reaction to these reports: "Hotels? What the @#@%@#&%?"
That was my initial reaction as well. Then a couple of thoughts followed, which seem all-too-plausible.
In a couple of months, thousands of Jews will be in hotels to celebrate Passover. Many large, well-known hotels have programs for Passover that attract hundreds of Jewish families. Those in NY can pick up a copy of the Jewish Week to see an amazing array of advertisements for such programs.
The schedules are known well in advance; it's not like Passover's scheduling can be changed, and the Seder ritual feast is always held the first two nights of the holiday (outside of Israel) after sundown. and the Seder is long enough that its conclusion on the East Coast can overlap with its commencement on the West Coast - which makes it easier to plan multiple attacks in different places.
Since 9/11, what has been the most "successful" episode of Jew-killing? Last year's "Passover Massacre" in Israel. That atrocity was perpetrated by Hamas, but al-Qaeda has been willing to crib techniques and tactics from other terrorist groups.
Security at hotels in Israel for this Passover is likely to be unbelievably strict after last year's attack. I am not sure the same can be said for such hotels in America, which in any case have far less experience of being terrorist targets as do Israeli establishments.
We thus have an upcoming situation which seems to fit the warning, a situation that gives terrorists opportunity to prepare and precedent on which to base such preparations.
I would be very scared if I was scheduled to got to a hotel this Passover.
I hope that the FBI has already thought along similar lines. Just in case they haven't, if anyone reading this entry knows someone in any position to do anything about this terrible possibility, please alert them.
I know that this post has been pure speculation. But we need to engage in more of it, in order to overcome the terrorists' advantages in the learning curve against reactive bureaucracies.
Posted by Dr. Manhattan at 6:46 PM | Permalink
Comments
And here's a fact that most people probably don't know: The vast majority of hotels in America are owned by Indians and Pakistani.
I doubt the Feds raised the alarm because of Passover. It's not until mid-April. They probably have more specific knowledge.
Posted by: Meryl Yourish | February 12, 2003 9:36 PM
I know its off topic, but -- how is it celebrated in Israel?
Posted by: Jane Galt | February 12, 2003 10:28 PM
Sir, I think the very fact you had this idea - and that Instapundit is getting into the general circulation - may well have prevented this. You should be damned proud of yourself - I hate to say this, but you are a freakin' hero, sir.
Posted by: Exactly | February 12, 2003 10:40 PM
The seder is only on the first day of Passover in Israel, and it only lasts for seven days, not eight.
Posted by: Dave | February 12, 2003 11:05 PM
"The vast majority of hotels in America are owned by Indians and Pakistani."
A saying I've heard is that 'the Patels own the Motels'. But, do they own hotels as well, or is that mainly large corps like Hilton?
And, more importantly, what does it matter? Are you trying to say that they might unknowingly hire staff from their home countries who will turn out to be terrorists, or are you saying that the owners of these hotels would themselves be in on the plot to murder guests?
Posted by: Lonewacko | February 12, 2003 11:09 PM
Megan:
Dave is right. Most holidays have an extra day when observed outside of Israel.
Posted by: Dr. Manhattan | February 12, 2003 11:36 PM
Just that there aren't many Jewish-owned hotels. But I don't think they'll be heading for the Motel 6 chains, and no, it wasn't derogatory in any sense of the world.
I used to work for HFS (now Cendant), which owns several major hotel chains, and learned how powerful the Asian lobby is in the industry.
There are a number of hotels, especially in upstate New York, that have special Seders on Passover. You may have a point that the terrorists would find them a perfect target. But again, Passover doesn't begin until April 16th. There could be a world of change--literally--by then.
I'll come back to this tomorrow, Dr. Manhattan. It's been a long day for me.
Posted by: Meryl Yourish | February 13, 2003 12:51 AM
Jewish owned hotels?
The Jewish Pritzker family owns Hyatt.
Posted by: Stefan Sharkansky | February 13, 2003 2:51 AM
I don't know where Newsweek got the idea that the owner of the pubs in Bali was Jewish. The owner is I Gede Wiratha, which is a Balinese name. See this story in today's Singapore Straits Times: http://www.straitstimes.com.sg/asia/story/0,4386,171395,00.html?
Posted by: Steve Thompson | February 13, 2003 2:53 AM
FYI - I'm on a business trip to Boston this week, staying at the Four Seasons up on Beacon Hill. Having been there a couple times before, I noticed that security now is much tighter. There is an armed guard sitting in front of the elevator bank, checking the IDs/room keys of all people trying to enter the elevators.
Posted by: Tad Holbie | February 13, 2003 7:24 AM
Interesting. Can I hijack the thread again to ask why?
Posted by: Jane Galt | February 13, 2003 8:09 AM
In times past, before accurate means of timekeeping, it was impossible for Jews in lands far from Israel to know exactly when sunset occurred in the Holy Land. In order to avoid ending a holiday observance too soon, it was extended for an extra day.
Posted by: g | February 13, 2003 8:24 AM
'Twasn't sunset. It was the declaration of the new moon, setting the first day of the month. Sunset is sunset wherever you are.
Posted by: Anonymous | February 13, 2003 9:13 AM
quote from a PBS interview with Ali Al-Ahmed, executive director of the Saudi Institute:
"...the hijackers, 15 hijackers who are Saudis, they studied this thinking -- destructive thinking -- in Saudi Arabia. They spent a few months in Afghanistan. But they lived their life, they studied this in government mosques. [..] Government curriculum inspired what happened in New York."
and what will happen again and again until we:
1. as Daniel Pipes has been saying, cut the political correctness and call a spade a spade.
2. militarily crush the terrorist cells and the governments that spawn them
2. cut off the flow of our money to the terrorists.
Posted by: joanie | February 13, 2003 9:57 AM
Meryl, I'm not sure how your observation that Passover is a ways off contradicts Dr. M's basic theory. I agree with your basic point: that the warning is about now, not two months from now, but I am positive that the FBI is taking the possibility of a copycat Passover massacre very, very seriously.
Posted by: Di | February 13, 2003 10:10 AM
I hope you're right, Diane.
Posted by: Dr. Manhattan | February 13, 2003 12:37 PM
Just to add to the sense of gloom, why not the Bar-mitzvah or Bat-mitzvah of some prominent family? I expect it would be reasonably well publicized, lots of folks moving in and out, and so on. The temple or the reception hall could be a target. God Forbid, OK, but there it is.
Posted by: Tom Maguire | February 13, 2003 1:28 PM
Sure, that's possible. They've certainly done smaller-scale attacks in the past, and their Palestinian cohorts hit a Bat Mitzva in Hadera last year.
But if you're looking for an opportunity for multiple, simultaneous attacks, for times scheduled years in advance and at locations advertised months in advance (I've never seen a bar mitzva advertised in the paper in advance), I think my scenario better fits that bill.
I don't want to minimize the likelihood of your scenario, though.
Posted by: Dr. Manhattan | February 13, 2003 1:44 PM
All the major synagogues and the JCC on 76th and Amsterdam have large cinderblocks protecting them. I don't know what they are called, so I call them cinderblocks.
Posted by: Diana | February 13, 2003 7:54 PM
you're a moron for disclosing such explicit info about Passover. whether it's true or not, no one needs to know.
the people that need to know already know.
you're as bad as some of these movie producers that give ideas for terrorism.
Silence is golden!
Posted by: Peter | February 13, 2003 10:24 PM
Diana: those cinderblock-type things are either dragon's teeth (http://www.xs4all.nl/~gurth/afv/bunkers/dragonsteeth.html), which are designed to stop cars and such, or just plain old jersey barriers.
And Tad, the Four Seasons is in Back Bay - you're not yet up here on the Hill =)
Posted by: Ben | February 14, 2003 1:40 AM
Peter, these seders are advertized in Jewish newspapers which are sold on the streets of NYC, often from newstands run by central or south Asian people (I don't know where exactly). It's not like it's a big secret.
Posted by: yehudit | February 14, 2003 2:05 AM
i think that jewish schools should have more security -
Posted by: jon | January 18, 2004 1:56 PM