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March 21, 2002
TERRORIST PREVENTION 101: Apparently today's
TERRORIST PREVENTION 101: Apparently today's suicide bomber had been recently released from custody by the Palestinian "Authority."
Meanwhile, Colin Powell - as in the head of the peace-processing State Department - is moving to declare the Arafat-connected Al-Aqsa Brigades a terrorist organization. It's too early to say "I told you so," but it is clear that this is not your Bush father's Administration. I just don't see James Baker-type pressure coming anytime soon.
In addition, Bill Quick also takes up the big picture of the U.S.-Israel-Iraq triangle and looks at the future for the region. It's not pretty. According to the World Tribune article he cites:
The two countries are said to have reached an understanding over the military priorities in any U.S. war against President Saddam Hussein.
The priorities focus on protecting Israel from an Iraqi nonconventional missile attack. The sources said the administration has pledged to provide early-warning alert for any Iraqi missile attack and focus its war effort on destroying Iraqi missile launchers near the Jordanian border. The sources said the understandings were reached during Cheney's visit this week.
...The understandings also include an Israeli commitment to exhibit restraint during any U.S.-led war against Iraq. The sources said the commitment regards a series of scenarios raised by Washington.
In one scenario, Iraq fires missiles tipped with chemical warheads toward Israel. U.S. intelligence agencies believe Iraq has installed chemical warheads on Iraqi Scud-class missiles. But the agencies are skeptical over the effectiveness of the warheads on aging Iraqi missiles, meant to fly more than 400 kilometers.
The diplomatic sources said Israel has agreed to demonstrate restraint in the face of such an Iraqi attack as long as the missiles are launched from Iraqi territory rather than from neighboring Jordan or Syria.
As an aside, wouldn't you love (in a perverse way) to see how the Arab world would blame Israel if the chemical-tipped misslies failed to reach Israel and kiled people in Jordan or Syria? (And if it is the former, how about a joint Israeli-Jordanian force going into Iraq as a response? That would surely blow the minds of the region's bloodhtirsty anti-Semites.)
But back to the article...
For his part, Sharon has sought U.S. understanding for an Israeli military response to a third scenario — that of a Palestinian rocket attack on Israeli communities during the war against Saddam. The sources said Sharon maintains that Israel would then reserve the right to respond with a massive attack that would destroy the PA or exile PA Chairman Yasser Arafat.
The administration appears divided over Sharon's request. The sources said Cheney, National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld have expressed understanding of Sharon's position. But Secretary of State Colin Powell has warned that a massive Israeli response would derail any U.S. military campaign in Iraq.
Zinni should give Arafat a copy of the former paragraph at their next meeting. It really seems that the Bush adminsitration views Arafat as someone whose survival is moderatley useful to them until they can topple Saddam. But that won't be long, and once it happens, Sharon (or Netanyahu) may well be given the green light to destroy the PA once and for all.
Not that it will be a lasting solution, but it may well stop the flurry of suicide bombings. And that's good enough for now.
Posted by Dr. Manhattan at 7:46 PM | Permalink