THE CASE FOR PESIMISSM: "Spoons" predicts that Arafat will slip the noose again:
When it comes to saving his own skin, though, Arafat is as canny an actor as the world has ever seen. This is a guy who should have been killed dozens of times over by now. From his involvement in the massacre of the Israeli Olympic team in 1972, to his personally ordering the murder of a U.S. ambassador and his aide in the Sudan, to the launching of the current intifada, it's astonishing that neither Israel nor the U.S. killed Arafat years ago. He has survived so long, however, for the simple reason that Arafat understands us better than we understand him. He knows exactly how far he can push us, and how far he cannot. He has become a master of bringing us right to the brink, and them backing off.
...Powell is going to walk out of Arafat's compound with what will be described as major concessions. Arafat will agree to a unilateral cease fire. He will agree to crack down on terrorism. He will agree to condemn suicide bombers to his people, in Arabic (he will not say, however, that such people are murderers and not martyrs, and Powell won't press the issue). He will also "agree" to enter into immediate talks on a political resolution to the conflict. We will hear the words "Tenet", and particularly "Mitchell", several times during the announcement.
Arafat will have effectively slipped the noose, and once again, the ball will be in Israel's court.
"Spoons" is too pessimistic, in my view. Even if Arafat does all of that, the next terrorist attack will reverse the momentum. And even the biggest proponents of the recent invasion of the West Bank have no illusion that the next bombing will be long in coming. So even if Arafat slips the noose this time, it will be re-fitted before long.