THE FACTS ARE UNPLEASANT THINGS: Richard Cohen really dislikes Ariel Sharon, and thinks that the bombing in Rishon le-Tzion has destroyed his credibility.
Why?
[I]n saying the bombing proved "the true intentions of the person leading the Palestinian Authority," he was insisting on what most of the world -- anyone with a TV set, that is -- suspects cannot be true.
...It's hardly possible that he gave an order -- even in the most complex code -- while a prisoner.
...What about since? Still, not likely. Unless the vaunted Israeli intelligence services have become inept, I would assume that they had Arafat under surveillance the entire time. I assume his phone is tapped. I assume his car is bugged. If he had a pacemaker, I assume the Israelis could turn it off.
It is, of course, remotely possible that Arafat either gave the order for the bombing or looked the other way. But Sharon did not make such a case. He offered no proof -- nothing to overcome our skepticism.
It's probably true that Arafat wouldn't have minded Hamas waiting a few more days before resuming their lives' work. But in terms of "looking the other way" - how about letting Hamas roam free, calling for "millions of martyrs" and calling the Israelis "terrorists, pigs and Nazis?"
It's not, mind you, that I don't believe Arafat is a terrorist and has in the past either initiated or acquiesced in suicide bombings. It's rather that this time Sharon seems only to be rounding up the usual suspects.
Maybe we should wait until Sharon actually does something before deciding whether or not he is "rounding up the usual suspects." If he were to send forces into Gaza to attack the strongholds of Hamas, that would be aimed at different suspects than Operation Defensive Shield, which was mainly aimed at the al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade. Nuances, anyone? I forgot - this is Sharon we're talking about.
Nonetheless, Arafat had nothing to gain by permitting a suicide bombing at this time. He must know how Sharon will retaliate. He must know that Sharon is perfectly capable of snatching him and sending him back into exile. At a minimum, Sharon could destroy whatever the Palestinian Authority has left -- and that ain't much.
He must also know that Sharon has been dying to do so for a while, and has been prevented from doing so by the U.S., egged on by the Europeans and Arab countries. Why would he expect one more suicide bombing to change that? He has already survived innumerable "last chances;" what's another one? (Via InstaPundit, here's the best summary of the situation.)
These bombings make everyone crazed. The rending of flesh, the unspeakable horror of bodies vaporized, make us all a little nuts. But we cannot let go of what we know. Suicide bombings are virtually nonexistent when Israel and the Palestinian Authority cooperate on security matters. A meaningful peace process discourages terrorism.
That is intuitive. But is it true?
Take a look at this chronolgy of suicide bombings from 1994-1997
when there was a "meaningful peace process." (And Netanyahu can't be blamed, because only the attacks from 1997 took place during his term. Hmm..there were fewer attacks in that year than in any of the three preceding ones. Must be a coincidence....)